Farmers Movement Archive

Assembly polls: 70 seats up for grabs in western Uttar Pradesh

Twenty districts of western Uttar Pradesh will vote in the first and second phases of the Uttar Pradesh assembly polls on February 10 and 14 in this agrarian belt where the year-long farmers’ movement and other issues, including the demand for legal guarantee on MSP (minimum support price) of crops, price rise and law and order, are likely to have an impact.Even as political parties and their leaders have prepared their strategies to woo voters, the Election Commission’s ban on road shows, rallies and other processions till January 15 due to rising Covid-19 cases means the parties will have to largely bank on social media and other alternative ways to campaign.Bhartiya Kisan Union (BKU) media incharge and farmer leader Dharmendra Malik says the entire election will be between “pro-BJP and anti BJP” people. It won’t be easy for the BJP to repeat its resounding victory of the 2014, 2017 and 2019 elections this time, he argues.“Many pro-BJP voters seem to have turned against it in the region especially in the rural areas. The year-long farmers’ movement had played a significant role to bring about this shift of opinion,” claims Malik.At the same time, he says one shouldn’t take the BJP lightly because of its resources and well-established force of trained workers and leaders.Political analyst Jamshed Zaidi, too, believes the situation is not as conductive for the ruling BJP as it was in the 2017 elections when the party won 51 out of 70 assembly seats in the region ( Meerut, Saharanpur and Moradabad divisions).Zaidi says the farmers’ movement, price rise, unemployment and multiple problems of the common man may have a bearing on the prospects of the ruling party.The farmers’ movement has given a new lease of life to the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) in its political home turf of western UP and its alliance with the Samajwadi Party (SP) would pose a tough challenge to the BJP. The death of Rashtriya Lok Dal leader Ajit Singh due to Covid-19 related complications in May will also bring sympathy votes for his son Jayant Chaudhary who now heads the party.Veteran farmer leader Harpal Singh Bilari says the Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013 were a turning point in the politics of western UP and the BJP won all 14 seats in the region in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The party also came to power in the state in 2017 elections by winning 51 out of the region’s 70 seats. Bilari claims the farmers’ movement will prove to be another turning point for the BJP and angry farmers will vote it out of power.Bilari identifies sugarcane dues, inflation, cases against farmers, the demand for legal guarantee on MSP (minimum support price) of crops, problem of stray cattle as some of the major issues in the region. These issues could take voters away from the BJP in the election, he says.Bilari also claims the people no longer believe the BJP’s assurances and claims.In the 2012 assembly elections, the BJP won only 11 of the 70 seats in the region. The Samajwadi Party (SP) bagged 25 seats, the Bahujan Samaj Party 23, the Congress, the RLD three and others one that year.In 2017, the BJP won 51 of the region’s 70 assembly seats. The SP won 15, the Congress two, the BSP and the RLD one each.The political analyst says the BJP played its Hindutva card well in the 2014 (Lok Sabha), 2017 (assembly) and 2019 ( Lok Sabha) elections. It made a gain of 40 assembly seats in 2017 in comparison to the 2012 polls. The BSP suffered a loss of 22 seats and the SP of 10 seats.Another farmer leader Surendra Singh says the farmers and their family members voted in favour of the BJP in 2017 elections, believing the party will bring “achche din” (better days) but all this proved a “jumla” (rhetoric).Addressing a mahapanchayat in Muzaffarnagar a day after Rakesh Tikait burst into tears at the Ghazipur border in January 2021, his brother BKU chief Naresh Tikait regretted supporting the BJP in elections and declared that the mistake would be rectified.“BJP ko support karna hamaari bhool thi (It was our mistake to support the BJP),” Naresh Tikait had said.At the next Mahapanchayat in Muzaffarnagar on September 5, 2021, his brother and BKU spokesperson Rakesh Tikait appeared to attack the BJP’s Hindutva card by raising slogans of Har Har Mahadev and Allah Hu Akbar from the stage.His father the late Mahendra Singh Tikait, one of the most prominent farmer leaders of the region, used to raise slogans at his rallies and meetings to strengthen communal harmony in the region.Zaidi says the farmers’ movement revived the broken communal harmony by reducing differences between the dominat Jats and Muslims in the region and this will be winning equation for the RLD.He explains that Jats and Muslims could influence the outcome in more than 25 to 30 seats in the region, where they constitute 30 to 50% of the voters. The outcome will also depend on the mood of other castes, including OBCs, Dalits, Brahmins, Thakurs and Sainis, he says. Dharmendra Malik says the Dalits also hold the key in the region but they seem confused in this election because of the “indifferent attitude of BSP chief Mayawati”.Malik claims the BJP is working hard to win over the Dalits to offset the loss of Jats and other annoyed voters in the region.“It would be interesting to see whether people will still support Hindutva or give priorities to employment, inflation, law and other issues which have been adversely affecting their daily lives,” says Malik.On the other hand, former UP BJP chief Laxmikant Bajpai believes the farmers’ movement is an issue of the past and it has no impact now.“People of the region will support us as they did in previous elections,” says Bajpai.The BJP’s Meerut MP Rajendra Agarwal says the party will contest election on the basis of the work it has done for the people.“Look around Meerut, (you will see) the network of roads developed by the double engine government,” he says.Agarwal also mentions inauguration of the IT park, the state’s first sports university, Meerut-Delhi Expressway, the Ganga Expressway connecting Meerut to Prayagraj and many other highways being built through the region to connect Delhi, Dehradun and other destinations.He also mentions the under-construction rapid rail project between Delhi and Meerut.During their visits to the region, chief minister Yogi Adityanath, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other leaders also raised the issues of “palayan” (exodus) and restart of Kanwar Yatra to blend the issue of Hindutva with development. They also claimed that daughters and sisters are safe under the BJP rule because government has put the mafias and criminals behind bars. The party opponents, however, question the BJP’s claim about women safety and mention the Hathras and Unnao cases. They further allege that the BJP will misuse government machinery and money power to influence voters in the election, adding that the election commission needs to put an effective check on it.

Hindustan Times

09-01-2022

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