Farmers Movement Archive

Hot contest: Punjab’s problem of plenty making election outcome uncertain

JALANDHAR: Punjab is facing a unique political scenario as there are not only plenty of players but also plenty of factors that will affect the outcome of the upcoming assembly elections. The state is full of exuberantly confident political outfits — the incumbent Congress, Shiromani Akali Dal alliance with Bahujan Samaj Party, Aam Aadmi Party, Bharatiya Janata Party’s tie-up with Punjab Lok Congress (PLC) and SAD (Sanyukt), and not to forget Sanyukt Samaj Morcha formed by farmer leader Balbir Singh Rajewal with some other farm unions. With no detectable wave in favour of any party, multi-cornered contests are expected in several constituencies. With a multitude of factors at play, there can be 117 battles in Punjab with micro-level factors influencing things in each constituency. Obviously, each three-cornered or multi-cornered contest can throw up surprises. The situation before the 1991 assembly polls is the only near-precedent of fluidity and uncertainty in today’s Punjab. The polls in 1991 were not held as the Election Commission of India countermanded them just a day before the polling, even as polling parties had already been despatched to their stations. The only certainty at that time, before the assembly polls, was that Congress would be out of the picture as it was not contesting the polls. However, no one could have guessed the outcome of that election. In 1991, Shiromani Akali Dal (Amritsar) led by Simranjit Singh Mann appeared as a dominant player, when other Akali factions and one major faction of All-India Sikh Students Federation (AISSF) were also contesting. BJP, Bahujan Samaj Party and communist parties, which then had a reasonable presence at some seats, were also contesting. Subsequently, the assembly election was held in February 1992 and the pattern for February after every five years was set. The Congress was voted to power through an unpopular mandate as the polling percentage according to ECI data was 23.96%, due to boycotts by all Akali factions. Three decades later, the Congress is once again at the centrestage. Punjab, where the party was once very unpopular due to the tumultuous happenings of 1984 and the subsequent years, is extremely crucial for the party for its revival at the national level. That’s the reason for BJP’s bid to block here. Just a year ago, the Congress appeared relatively in a comfortable position as its opponents — Shiromani Akali Dal and Aam Aadmi Party — were still battling to gain ground and BJP was only a marginal player as was it was restricted in its work by the farmers’ protests and without one of its oldest allies, SAD. However, a lot has changed since April 2021. Discontentment against the then chief minister Captain Amarinder Singh was already brewing within the party as MLAs and ministers were facing heat over the performance of the government, especially on issues of Bargari sacrilege and Behbal Kalan and Kotkapura police firing cases of 2015. The Punjab and Haryana high court order in the second week of April that quashed the probe by a special investigation team in the Kotkapura police firing case accentuated the trouble. It was opposition to Amarinder which united his detractors within the party but once he was shunted out, stability and unity have been eluding the state Congress. It is the instability within Congress that has increased the fluidity in the overall political scene. Its state unit chief Navjot Singh Sidhu and chief minister Charanjit Singh Channi appear to be pulling in different directions. When Sidhu was appointed the Punjab Congress president, for a few days there seemed to be an upward push in perception, but machinations within the party and the new government undid those gains and also the perception about him. Channi’s appointment was a potential game-changer as he became the first scheduled caste Sikh CM. However, the Congress’ failure to act as a cohesive force is leading the party to squander away the gains. Sukhbir Badal-led Shiromani Akali Dal remains the most cohesive party, but is still battling to recover its lost ground in its core constituency – Sikhs. Notwithstanding Sukhbir claims, recent speeches by former CM Parkash Singh Badal and Akal Takht Jathedar Giani Harpreet Singh reflected anything but the confidence of victory. The Akali Dal’s erstwhile junior partner Bharatiya Janata Party is now out to play on its own. The party contested around one-fifth of the assembly seats in alliance with SAD, but now it is claiming it will form the next government in alliance with Amarinder’s PLC and SAD (Sanyukt). However, even Amarinder’s confidantes are preferring to join BJP rather than PLC. From these shifts, PLC appears to be more of a special purpose vehicle for these elections. BJP has also managed to induct a few prominent leaders from the Congress and Akali Dal and more can be expected in the next few days. Polarisation has been helping BJP in other states, but in Punjab it can be counter-productive. Meanwhile, Aam Aadmi Party has got back into the perception battle. Party supremo Arvind Kejriwal’s freebies and other promises, touted as “guarantees”, appear to have struck a chord with a section of voters. More than its emphasis to put itself on a high pedestal of morality (there is little talk around its ‘3C’ formula now), AAP is simply pushing the idea that both the Congress and SAD have already been tested and there is no harm in giving a chance to it. For now, AAP appears to be ahead of its rivals but to gain more on the ground, it opened talks with farm leaders and they were tricked into negotiations. The farm leaders, who are keen on joining politics to maximise gains from the Centre’s repeal of three farm laws, are now facing the heat and hurt of these talks with AAP. However, the farm groups are the biggest element of uncertainty. The farm movement added to the disenchantment with established political parties and thus increased the fluidity at ground level. Punjab remained the epicentre of the farm movement and it also has good scope for an alternative to traditional outfits. Poll data from the past confirms that this space exists and it has pushed the farm groups to jump into the fray themselves. Around 20 groups announced their decision to form Sanyukt Samaj Morcha to contest the assembly elections. Then talking to AAP created more trouble for them and led to more fissures. It was opposition to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s dispensation which united the farm groups, but flirting with AAP has fractured them. In a way what BJP and its entire ecosystem could not achieve in breaking the unity among farmers, talks with AAP did. The farm groups are still unclear about their next course of action. To top it all, how will the third wave of Covid-19 hit the country and the state has added another layer of complexity.

The Times of India

2022-01-09