Farmers Movement Archive

Will BJP reap benefits of repeal in Uttar Pradesh elections?

LUCKNOW: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s announcement for the repeal of three contentious farm laws is likely to have a major impact in the politics of Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, the two states going to polls early next year. While the BJP may make a comeback in the contest in Punjab, its dilemma over the impact of the farm laws in UP will also be over for now. Live updates: Govt repeals farm lawsThe impact of the farmers’ agitation was primarily visible in western UP as the region happened to be the native place of Bharatiya Kisan Union (BKU) leaders Rakesh Tikait and Naresh Tikait. Since the Tikaits come from the Jat community, most of the Jat farmers also stood behind the BKU leadership. Read Also'Apology to countrymen': Couldn't convince a section of farmers on agri laws, will repeal all three, says PMIn a decision that took the nation by surprise, PM Modi on Friday offered an apology for being unable to convince a section of farmers about the benefits of the new farm laws and announced that they would be withdrawn in the forthcoming winter session of Parliament.Though discussions on the issues of farmers are common in UP and Bihar during, before and after the elections, they have never come out as a consolidated votebank. Even farmers get affected by the caste divide and politics which ultimately positions them in favour or against a party, or a candidate, at least in UP and Bihar. Read AlsoFarm laws: Modi move may change Punjab poll equationsNEW DELHI: PM Narendra Modi's announcement of the repeal of the three farm laws may change the electoral temper in poll-bound Punjab. Until the PM went on air, the three laws seemed set to be one of the themes which would have defined next year's contest in the Congress-ruled state. Congress rebelThis is where the BJP’s Jat politics was getting affected ahead of UP assembly polls. Not only Tikaits, even parties like the Jayant Chaudhary-led Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) – which primarily thrives on Jat support base – was also trying to cash in on the protest against the farm laws. Read AlsoFarm laws: Boost for Rahul line on 'street politics'?The decision of the Modi government to rollback the three farm laws is reminiscent of the BJP regime’s wilting under pressure over its proposed amendments to the land acquisition Act, and is likely to strengthen the Rahul Gandhi line of argument that the opposition needs to pick issues against theAccording to BJP leaders, farmers’ protest had undoubtedly given a new lease of life to the RLD, a party which had been losing confidence and Jat votebank ever since Jayant’s father late Chaudhary Ajit Singh grew old, and the BJP, after Muzaffarnagar riots, penetrated deep into the Jat community. Riding on the Modi wave, BJP had bagged all the 17 seats from the region in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. In 2017 UP elections too, the party won 60 out of 80 assembly seats in west UP. However, BJP registered a slight dip in the number of seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, when the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Samajwadi Party shared seven seats between them leaving BJP with only 10 out of 17 seats. “Even then, the BJP managed to get maximum Jat votes in its favour. Since the Jat community is vocal in nature, it is not easy to keep them in good humour all the time,” a BJP leader told TOI. The farmers’ protest added to the woes of the BJP as Naresh Tikait and Rakesh Tikait, under the banner of Sanyukt Kisan Morcha, managed to create a buzz in west UP and Terai region. Read AlsoRepeal of farm laws: Worry over Punjab unrest drove decisionPM Narendra Modi's Gurpurab surprise was strongly driven by concern over the fallout of the prolonged agitation in Punjab, a border state where the possibility of fresh disaffection was seen to be a problematic issue that needed an urgent outreach to the Sikh community as the stir showed no signs ofParties like RLD pounced on the opportunity and rallied behind farmers to win back Jat support. “The common refrain among RLD workers in west UP was ‘Krishi kanoon to bahana hai, Jayant Chaudhary ko jamana hai,” a BJP leader claimed. Talking to TOI, RLD spokesman Rohit Agrawal said, “Now, it has been proved that RLD was on the right track by standing with the farmers. We have not been talking about Jats or Gurjars but bhaichara (brotherhood),” he added. As the 2022 UP assembly election will be the first after the demise of Chaudhary Ajit Singh, Jayant faces the tedious task of cementing his position and saving the RLD’s vote base. According to political analysts, the “floating” Jat voter, who was a bit confused over the farm law and was mulling to switch loyalty, would now be able to make up his mind. They said the repeal of farm laws will not only be a matter of concern for RLD but also for other opposition parties as they had been rallying behind the farmers to create a perception among voters that the BJP was working against their interests. Former journalist and BJP spokesman Avinish Tyagi, who is also a native of west UP, termed the PM’s decision as “far-sighted”. However, Congress leader Surendra Singh Rajput claimed that the fear of losing the elections forced the PM to repeal the farm laws. “Farmers and youths can see the intentions of the BJP and would not fall in the trap. The government should also guarantee the minimum support price (MSP) to farmers,” he added.

The Times of India

2021-11-20

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