Farmers Movement Archive

Opposition may have to redraw its strategy in UP

With Parliament repealing the contentious farm laws on the very first day of its winter session today, the opposition parties in Uttar Pradesh are literally in a state of disarray.Till now, they were riding high on the potent issue that had dented the pro-poor image of the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP)-led governments at the Centre and in Uttar Pradesh. Though the farmers have so far refused to relent on their demand for legal sanctity to the Minimum Support Price (MSP), the withdrawal of the farm laws may enervate their year-long successful movement.Meghalaya governor Satya Pal Malik, who hails from West UP, opines, “Some anger against the BJP might reduce but the issue will remain unresolved till government concedes their MSP demand.”But can MSP have the same polarising effect as the three farm laws? That’s the worry of the opposition already facing a tough challenge from a mighty BJP in the upcoming 2022 assembly polls. Even as the impact of the farmer’s agitation was largely confined to west UP, it had become a talking point in other parts of the state after the Lakhimpur Kheri violence. Thus, it helped the opposition construct a political narrative, combined with other issues like petrol, diesel, cooking gas and fertilizer prices.Now, the opposition may have to redraw their poll strategy as the BJP will not leave any stone unturned to win back the region that largely contributed to its victory in 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha and 2017 Vidhan Sabha elections. Union Home Minister Amit Shah will be addressing party’s booth presidents meeting on December 2 in Saharanpur, giving direction as well as fillip to the BJP’s campaign. Already several union ministers have addressed meetings in West UP.Hoardings are ready to flood the region. Most of them will have farmers thanking Prime Minister Narendra Modi for repealing the farm laws. And then the communal fault lines may also reappear damaging the revived Jat-Muslim bohomie. The BJP has galvanised its organisational machinery and intensified a strong Hindu agenda to break itWhy opposition is worried ?“The gap left behind the 2017 elections is too huge to cover,” said a Congress leader from west UP referring to 325 of the 403 seats won by BJP and its allies in the 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly election.He said, “The BJP has penetrated vote banks like OBCs, Vaishyas, Brahmins and non-Jatav Dalits. The Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) has revived and allied with the Samajwadi Party (SP), the front-runner in the upcoming polls. But the SP will have to stitch some caste alliances here in west UP on the pattern of east UP, where it has found a partner in Om Prakash Rajbhar. ”Samajwadi Party (SP) national president Akhilesh Yadav and Rashtriya Lok Dal chief Jayant Chaudhary have been drawing crowds while the Congress national general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra has been evoking curiosity. But can they stop the BJP in its tracks? Many experts are of the view that even the BJP’s fall from 325 could be by 100 seats, still leaving them with a comfortable majority.Aware of the ground realities, Jayant Chaudhary has already started talking about inclusive politics though he is confident that the farmers will not forget their miseries and forgive the BJP.“The farmers struggled and succeeded in their battle. It’s not a mercy shown to them. Do you think they can so easily forget and forgive the government that compelled them to spend wintry nights in the open?” he asks.Upendra Kumar and his brother Ajay Kumar, farmers from Baraut, Charan Singh’s village, lament the fact that they have to sell their paddy at Karnal in the neighbouring Haryana. According to them, the government had to succumb to the mounting pressures from the farmers and they will have to concede our demand for MSP. They say: How can the government ignore the voice of farmers, who form 60% of the state’s population?Meanwhile, the RLD has launched Bahujan Uday Abhiyan in the western districts to reconstruct the rainbow coalition of castes that Charan Singh had envisaged. The party leaders move around villagers, especially Dalit dominated, with their message of social inclusion. So, the opposition parties, in all probability, will revisit their poll strategy. As such, all the four opposition parties — the SP, RLD, Congress and the Bahujan Samaj Party — lack the wherewithal to vie with the ruling party’s paraphernalia. The major challenge will be ticket distribution, in which much of the balancing of the castes will have to be done. As an expert on condition of anonymity said, “Public memory is ephemeral. Barring families who lost their near and dear ones to Covid, few are talking about mismanagement today. Elections are a few months away and caste equations matter. To keep the farmers’ issue burning, the opposition will have to keep rubbing it, reminding them of their year-long battle.”So, the crux of the matter is that will farmers’ anger subside or simmer in the coming months? Will the communal fault lines re-appear? How will the opposition set right its caste calculus? Will the voters remain an aggrieved farmer at the polling booth or will be guided by his caste? Will opposition ensure the election does not get a communal colour with jibes like “abba jaan” with intent to paint the SP-RLD as parties of Muslims? And in a multi-cornered contest, how will they ensure that even BJP votes divide? The churning is on. Is West U.P. up for grabs ?

Hindustan Times

30-11-2021

Lucknow