Farmers Movement Archive

Farm laws repealed: UP elections key driver behind Centre rethink?

Two politically significant decisions by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) clearly show that west UP continues to remain crucial for translating into reality the party’s slogan, “Ek baar phir, 300 paar.” (One more time; over 300 ). The party hopes to return to power with almost as many seats as it won in 2017 (312 in the 403 seat assembly). First, the party decided that the Braj-Paschim region would be handled by Union home minister Amit Shah. Second, on Friday, the Prime Minister announced the withdrawal of three contentious farm laws. Shah scripted the BJP’s spectacular victories in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections and the 2017 Vidhan Sabha polls in Uttar Pradesh. The Braj-Paschim zone, as defined by the BJP, has six divisions, each comprising three districts. The party won 115 out of 135 assembly seats in 2017 and 24 of 27 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. In all , the BJP won 312 out of 403 seats in 2017 and, along with its allies, 62 of the 80 seats in the state in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.However, a few months before the 2022 assembly polls, the party’s fortunes appeared bleak in an area engulfed by the farm agitation. BJP leaders were facing the wrath of people in villages—many even put up signs stopping their entry.The party’s prospects looked brighter in the other regions such as Kanpur, Gorakhpur, Awadh and Kashi where the party’s national president JP Nadda and Union Defence Minister Rajnath Singh are scheduled to conduct booth presidents’ conclaves shortly.It was clear that the BJP could not offset losses in the western part of the state elsewhere. As a senior BJP leader from the area remarked: “If we lose the west, we lose the state. The road to UP and to Delhi goes via west (UP) only.”Many in the party pointed to critical and angry statements from senior Jat leader and Meghalaya governor Satya Pal Malik, who has consistently and vocally opposed the farm laws.“As a senior Jat leader from the area, Malik knew the sentiments of his clan. He would have never violated discipline that binds him while holding a constitutional position otherwise,” said another party leader who asked not to be named.The farmer’s movement gave life to opposition parties in the region, especially the Rashtriya Lok Dal, whose president Jayant Chaudhary lost the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. It also served to remove communal fault lines that emerged in the area after the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots.This was worrisome for the BJP, which launched its 2014 campaign from the western part of the state. In the wake of the riots, Narendra Modi, then the prime ministerial candidate promised development, and Yogi Adityanath, then a member of Parliament, promised to protect the people of the area, raising issues such as love jihad. Since then, the region remained the BJP’s stronghold till the farm laws were introduced.Agriculture is the lifeblood of people in the 21 western districts of the state. Prominent politicians in the region came from the farming community and agrarian issues dominated electoral politics till the launch of the Ram Janmabhoomi movement. Till then, people preferred to be identified as kisan (farmer), and less by their religion or caste—farming being the main occupation of 90% of the populace. Former Prime Minister the late Charan Singh helped in building Majgar, an alliance of Muslim, Ahir, Jat, Gujjar and Rajput voters. Singh died in May 1987. Almost the same time, the Vishwa Hindu Parishad launched a sustained public movement for the liberation of Ram Janmabhoomi in Ayodhya.The 1990s saw the rise of the Bhartiya Kisan Union under Mahendra Singh Tikait amid cries of Jai Sri Ram and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) under the leadership of Kanshi Ram and Mayawati. Farmers supported Tikait on farming related issues but made their own political choices. Majgar, too, collapsed, with the BSP penetrating the strongholds of the Dalits.However, the Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013 dealt the final blow to farmer unity, dividing them on caste and religious lines with the BJP being the major gainer.It was in this context that the farm laws, and their opposition by farmers in the region, united under the banner of the Samyukta Kisan Morcha, became significant.Former MLA Anil Chaudhary (now in the Congress) who had been attending all mahapanchayats called by the farmers said: “In the initial days of the movement, only Jats and a few Gujjar office bearers of BKU were seen on the Ghazipur border. Muslims were few. Later, all castes and communities joined hands under one banner.” However, there were some like Jamshed Zaidi, a political analyst who remain sceptical about this unity. “Will a Jat vote for a Muslim?” he asked.Now, the withdrawal of the farm laws has punctured the Opposition’s plan to reap a harvest in the 2022 assembly elections, although much is still riding on Shah’s ability to assuage the hurt sentiments of the farmers who spent chilly nights under the sky.Shah will soon embark on a rath yatra. He is known for his meticulous poll planning and organisational skills, but this time, his challenge lies elsewhere: Shah will have to wipe tears and gain confidence.

Hindustan Times

20-11-2021

India