Farmers Movement Archive

Five ways in which repeal of farm laws impacts Punjab's political dynamics

The repeal of three contentious farm laws by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on Gurpurab (the 552nd birth anniversary of Guru Nanak Dev) is imbued with huge symbolism for Punjab, which was the epicentre of dogged farmers’ protests for more than a year. The surprise announcement is sure to impact the political dynamics in the poll-bound border state where the assembly election is slated for early next year. Here is how:1. Reprieve for BJP: A closure on the year-old agitation comes as a major breather for the saffron party, which was facing farmers’ ire on the ground in Punjab. The farm laws not only led to rupture of its 24-year-old poll alliance with the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), which walked out of the National Democratic Alliance government last year, but also made it the target of the wrath of the Sikh peasantry in rural Punjab. Now, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to leverage Modi’s gesture, which came two days after the Centre’s move to reopen the Kartarpur corridor for Sikh pilgrims to Pakistan and regain the ground it lost in the Sikh constituency.2. Congress ups the credit war: The ruling Congress in Punjab, which has consistently opposed the farm laws and passed assembly resolutions rejecting the central legislation twice has been quick to claim credit for “forcing” the Modi government to relent. The Channi government, having already announced a string of populist announcements for rural votes, will make the rollback a centrepiece of its poll pitch in the assembly sweepstakes. In the opposition space, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Akalis will be competing with the Congress in crediting the farmers for “victory”.3. New political equations on the card: The repeal of the laws has opened possibilities of new political alignments and alliances in Punjab. It is a major relief for the Shiromani Akali Dal, which was smarting under the double whammy of the break-up of its alliance with the BJP and a backlash from its core constituency among peasantry for having initially supported the Modi government’s ordinances on farm reforms before the Parliament stamped them as laws. Desperate to be in poll reckoning, the Akalis had forged an alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), leaving 20 of 117 assembly seats to the junior partner. But, the elevation of Charanjit Singh Channi as Punjab’s first Dalit chief minister negated the SAD’s caste card through the BSP. The Akalis can now hope to recover the political ground they lost in their traditional bastion of farmers. But, the key question in Punjab now is: will the SAD and the BJP warm up to each other and again forge an alliance that once welded the Sikh and Hindu constituencies in an electorally formidable way? Political analysts don’t rule that out this possibility.4. Clears the way for Captain-BJP tie-up: The repeal of farm laws opens up the window for a poll tie-up between breakaway Congress leader and former chief minister Captain Amarinder Singh who has floated a new party Punjab Lok Congress and hinted at seat-sharing with the BJP in case there is a resolution of the farm issues. Though Captain’s party is yet to take off, he still has political heft and appeal in both rural and urban pockets of Punjab and will be hoping to woo disgruntled Congress leaders to dent the party he was pushed out of unceremoniously.5. X-factor of farmer organisations: The 32 bodies comprising the Samyukt Kisan Morcha (SKM), most of them rooted in Punjab, will be in a triumphant mode over the repeal of the farm laws. But, will they take the electoral plunge to cash in on their victory? So far, they have ruled out contesting polls.But, some of the SKM constituents, named the Rajewal faction of the Bhartiya Kisan Union, are known to harbour political ambitions and are likely to be wooed by the Congress and the AAP. Farmer unions, buoyed by the success of their tenacious agitation, will be an X-factor at the Punjab hustings.

Hindustan Times

19-11-2021

Chandigarh