Farmers Movement Archive

The BJP marks its dominance

In the past year, there has been increasing commentary over the declining political fortunes of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). This view gained ground due to electoral setbacks or the party’s failure to form the government in a set of states (Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Delhi); protest movements against the government’s measures (for instance, the citizenship-related protests); the economic contraction and the humanitarian distress caused by the lockdown imposed to curb the spread of Covid-19; and the desertion of allies (for instance, the Akali Dal over the farm bills). But the results in Bihar — where the BJP has emerged as the senior partner in the National Democratic Alliance and will hold the real levers of power — and in by-polls across the country — the BJP won 41 of the 59 seats where elections were held — shows, once again, how observers got it wrong. The BJP has decisively reinforced its dominance in Indian politics.Both in Bihar and in the different states, which saw by-polls, local factors played an important role in shaping results. In by-polls, incumbent governments have an edge. And there has, indeed, been an increasing trend towards voters separating their choices in state and national polls. All of this should introduce a cautionary note in reading the results. Yet, there is no doubt that the BJP’s success indicates that the party still enjoys the support of vast segments of the electorate. This can be attributed to three key factors. The first is obvious — Prime Minister Narendra Modi evokes trust. This trust appears to be based on voters judging the PM’s intent — for instance, few blame him for imposing the lockdown, and recognise that it appeared the best option at that time — and appreciating the government’s welfare delivery. While the provision of homes, toilets, gas cylinders, and income transfers to farmers were recognised as factors in the 2019 win, not enough attention has been paid to the welfare measures introduced in the wake of the pandemic, from free ration to distribution of gas cylinders at no cost to benefits for the vulnerable. The second factor is the lack of faith voters still have in the Opposition’s ability to deliver better governance or resolve everyday issues. And finally, it is a testament to the BJP’s formidable organisational network, feedback systems, and the ability to ensure its narrative reaches every home that explains its success. The party has shown once again that its inroads are far deeper than often assumed.

Hindustan Times

12-11-2020

Editorials